The Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report, after covering 138 countries, concluded that global pay TV revenues will peak in 2017 at $202 billion. However, no rapid decline will take place after 2017 as revenues will still be as high as $200 billion in 2022, according to Digital TV Research, the analysis firm.
Revenues will rocket by 57% in Sub-Saharan Africa, from $2.40 billion to $6.59 billion and by 17% in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA), from $0.59 billion to $4.12 billion between 2016 and 2022. Sub-Saharan Africa passed MENA in 2016 and will overtake Eastern Europe in 2021.
Asia Pacific will record a $5.75 billion increase to $40 billion in 2022. Asia Pacific overtook Western Europe in 2013, and will be larger than the whole of Europe in 2017.
However, revenues will fall in North America by a huge $12 billion, Western Europe will be down by $566 million and Eastern Europe by $28 million between 2016 and 2022.
Despite its rapidly falling revenues, North America will still command 47.5% of global pay TV revenues or $94.82 billion in 2022, although this is way down from the 58.3% recorded in 2010.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Revenues will more than double for 13 countries between 2016 and 2022. India will add the most revenues by some distance, with China also recording impressive gains. Asia will account for seven of the top 10 gainers.”
Global analog cable revenues will fall by $8.77 billion between 2016 and 2022, not surprising given the switch-off of most of the remaining subscribers. However, digital cable TV revenues will also fall by $3.14 billion. This is due mainly to subscribers converting from standalone status to bundles, which provide higher overall revenues for operators but lower TV ones. IPTV revenues will climb by $2.34 billion.
Satellite TV will add more than any other platform from $6.66 billion to reach $89 billion. Satellite TV (DTH or DBS) revenues will overtake total cable TV revenues in 2020, having passed digital cable a year earlier.