Revenues from over-the-top film and TV in Sub-Saharan Africa will climb from US$223 million in 2018 to US$1.018 billion in 2024, according to a study by Digital TV Research.
The research found that subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) revenue is already the predominant driver for OTT TV and video sector growth in Africa. SVOD revenues are predicted to reach US$782m by 2024.
Subscriber numbers in the region are expected to grow by nearly four times the current level, rising from 3.03 million at the end of 2018 to 10.21 million by 2024.
South Africa is by far the biggest market in Africa and expected to remain the leader in the next five years, with an expected 3.46 million subscribers by 2024 followed by Nigeria with 2.56 million.
In terms of OTT platforms, Netflix is expected to remain the dominant player in the Sub-Saharan SVOD market, accounting for 39% of the region’s SVOD subscribers in 2024. While this is down slightly from a 45% share of subscribers in 2018, Netflix’s proportion of SVOD revenues are tipped to stay roughly flat at around 64% of the region’s total.
“Market dynamics have shifted over the last year,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “Despite its relatively high prices, Netflix has consolidated its market leadership. There have been many fewer platform launches, especially on a country level. Furthermore, several multinational players appear to have reined in their ambitions.”
Overall across the wider OTT market, South Africa is expected to account for 40% of the region’s revenues by 2024, some US$408 million, while Nigeria will account for a further 22% (US$223 million). The market is skewed towards certain countries with South Africa and Nigeria combined accounted for an estimated 71% of the region’s SVOD subscribers last year.
Digital TV Research expects this to decline to 59% by 2024, indicating growth in the region outside of the two main SVOD markets. However, only 15 of the 35 countries covered by the report are expected to generate OTT revenues of more than US$10 million by 2024.